Michael O’Neill’s men are riding high and are in Slovakia tonight with qualification for the World Cup in the USA next summer very much in their sights
It’s another defining date for the Northern Ireland football team as they try to book a place at the World Cup finals for the first time in 43 years.
Michael O’Neill’s men are riding high and are in Slovakia tonight with qualification for the World Cup in the USA next summer very much in their sights. The last time they played at a World Cup was in Spain way back in 1982 under Billy Bingham. The legendary win over the hosts is still talked about to this day – and not only by Gerry Armstrong!
It was always going to be a tough ask to finish in top spot this time in a qualification group with Germany and Slovakia – as well as Luxembourg. They have six points after four games with Slovakia and Germany both on nine points having played the same amount of games.
While finishing second would secure a play-off, Northern Ireland could still have a shot at reaching the World Cup even if they finish outside the top two thanks to their Nations League group win last year.
Here are the permutations and possibilities that could take Northern Ireland to the promised land.
Option 1: Win their group
That’s not likely. Germany are three points clear of Northern Ireland and their final two games are against Slovakia tonight and then Luxembourg on Monday.
So, in short, Northern Ireland need to win their final two games and hope the Germans collect just two points from their final two. Not going to happen, folks.
Option 2: Finish runners-up in Group A
Northern Ireland can conceivably leapfrog Slovakia. To do so they need a draw in Kosice tonight, then a win over Luxembourg on Monday while hoping Slovakia loses to Germany on the same night.
Then it comes down to goal difference. Slovakia’s is currently plus three, Northern Ireland’s plus one, but things can quickly change.
The benefit of finishing second in the group is that Northern Ireland would then be seeded in pot three rather than pot four for the play-offs and would thereby get an easier opponent, potentially Scotland.
Option 3: Reach the Play-Offs via the Nations League route
This bit is kind of complicated so we’ll just simplify it. By winning their Nations League group, Northern Ireland ended up ranked 12th out of 14 group winners.
That meant they needed eight of the 11 teams ranked above them to qualify automatically.
That is almost certain to happen. All it needs is for the Czech Republic to finish above the Faroe Islands and a play-off place is there for Northern Ireland.
The downside is they will be in pot four and will face an away game against pot one opposition in the play-offs, potentially Italy, Turkey, Poland or Ukraine.
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