More than 60% of respondents said they believe Brexit is on balance a bad thing for Northern Ireland
Support for the Windsor Framework is weakening in Northern Ireland, a new poll has suggested.
In the report from Queen’s University Belfast, 48% of respondents regard the framework as “on balance a good thing for Northern Ireland”, the lowest level since June 2021. The poll also states that opposition to the arrangements has remained static, at 36% of respondents.
The framework, agreed between the UK and the EU in 2023, amended the Northern Ireland Protocol and governs post-Brexit trading arrangements in the region. Northern Ireland continues to follow many EU trade and customs rules to ensure no hardening of the Irish land border.
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The report said that just over half of voters (52%) view the framework as an appropriate way to manage the effects of Brexit. This is below the 60% support levels of February 2024 but higher than the 35% who think it is not appropriate.
More than 60% of respondents said they believe that Brexit is on balance a bad thing for Northern Ireland.
The research was carried out by Professor David Phinnemore and Professor Katy Hayward, from Queen’s, and is the 14th in the “Testing the Temperature” series on voters’ views on Brexit and the Protocol/Windsor Framework.
The latest poll, conducted by LucidTalk for Queen’s between October 3-6, used a weighted sample of 1,201 respondents from across Northern Ireland. The survey is the first to be conducted since the UK-EU Summit in May.
It found that voters in Northern Ireland are most supportive of UK-EU plans for closer cooperation on health security and on an EU-UK agreement on agri-food. It also tested public opinion on the recommendations of the Review of the Windsor Framework by Lord Murphy.
The most popular priority was for the UK Government to reduce frictions on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland (ranked first or second by 44% of respondents).
Another 38% of voters prioritised encouraging the UK Government and Northern Ireland Executive to highlight the commercial benefits of dual market access for local manufacturers.
This relates to the finding that 61% believe the Windsor Framework offers unique economic opportunities for the region – a figure that is down from 68% in June 2024.
Prof Phinnemore said: “Support for the Windsor Framework has weakened, although a majority of voters still believe it provides opportunities which could benefit Northern Ireland economically.
“Of the recommendations from Lord Murphy’s recent review of the Windsor Framework, the main priority for voters are an SPS agreement to reduce frictions on GB-NI goods movements and greater government efforts to emphasise and publicise commercial benefits of dual market access.”
Prof Hayward said: “There are broadly three groups of opinions: those against the Windsor Framework in principle, those for it in principle, and those who accept it as a compromise but are alert to both difficulties and opportunities it might give rise to.
“Since our last poll in April there have been proposals to address difficulties and increase opportunities – most notably relating to the UK-EU ‘reset’.
“This poll is one indication of why there is an urgent need for progress on these.”
The new survey also suggests more voters see the impact of the Windsor Framework on Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market as negative (44%) rather than positive (29%) – a reversal of the situation in February 2024 (41% positive, 34% negative).
While more voters continue to see its effect on political stability in Northern Ireland as negative (42%) rather than positive (35%), this gap has narrowed since October 2023 (55% negative, 26% positive).
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